A predição da formatura e da evasão em uma universidade pública a partir de um modelo logístico
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Tipo
Artigo
Classficação
Nível teórico
Data
2021
Título do Períodico
Educação (UFSM)
ISSN
1984-6444
Página(s)/e-location
1-21
Idioma(s)
pt
Fonte
Fonte
Santa Maria, RS
46
92
jan./dez.
46
92
jan./dez.
Coleções
Resumo
O tema deste estudo são os percursos terminativos da educação superior, que são a evasão e a formatura. Tendo isso em vista, objetiva-se construir modelos logísticos preditivos desses dois desfechos em relação aos estudantes que ingressaram na Universidade Federal de Goiás em 2010, em cursos na modalidade presencial, os quais foram acompanhados por um período de oito anos. Para isso, foi feita consulta a microdados do Censo da Educação Superior Brasileira, de 2010 a 2017, publicados pelo Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais “Anísio Teixeira”. Para entender esses dois fenômenos - formatura e evasão - recorreu-se à técnica estatística da regressão logística e, além disso, foi feita pesquisa bibliográfica, em consulta a autores que fundamentam a técnica. Como resultado, verificou-se que a técnica estatística permite identificar variáveis que são fatores de risco ou protetivos para a formatura e a evasão; comparar categorias de uma mesma característica por meio da razão de chances; bem como avaliar a probabilidade de qualquer aluno se formar ou evadir. Trata-se, portanto, de uma ferramenta fundamental para a tomada de decisão dos gestores educacionais.
The theme of this study is the terminative courses of higher education, which are dropout and graduation. With this in mind, the objective is to build predictive logistic models of these two outcomes in relation to students who entered the Federal University of Goiás in 2010, in courses in classroom mode, who were followed for a period of eight years. To this end, consultation was made with microdata from the Brazilian Higher Education Census, from 2010 to 2017, published by the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research "Anísio Teixeira". In order to understand these two phenomena - graduation and dropout - the statistical technique of logistic regression was used and, in addition, bibliographic research was carried out, in consultation with authors who support the technique. As a result, it was found that the statistical technique allows the identification of variables that are risk or protective factors for graduation and dropout; compare categories of the same characteristic using the odds ratio; as well as assessing the likelihood of any student graduating or dropping out. It is, therefore, a fundamental tool for decision-making by educational managers
The theme of this study is the terminative courses of higher education, which are dropout and graduation. With this in mind, the objective is to build predictive logistic models of these two outcomes in relation to students who entered the Federal University of Goiás in 2010, in courses in classroom mode, who were followed for a period of eight years. To this end, consultation was made with microdata from the Brazilian Higher Education Census, from 2010 to 2017, published by the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research "Anísio Teixeira". In order to understand these two phenomena - graduation and dropout - the statistical technique of logistic regression was used and, in addition, bibliographic research was carried out, in consultation with authors who support the technique. As a result, it was found that the statistical technique allows the identification of variables that are risk or protective factors for graduation and dropout; compare categories of the same characteristic using the odds ratio; as well as assessing the likelihood of any student graduating or dropping out. It is, therefore, a fundamental tool for decision-making by educational managers
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Educação superior, Evasão, Formatura, High education, Evasion, Graduation
Citação
ROSA, Chaiane de Medeiros; SANTOS, Fabiano Fortunato Teixeira dos; MILANI, Eder Angelo. A predição da formatura e da evasão em uma universidade pública a partir de um modelo logístico. Educação (UFSM), Santa Maria, RS, v. 46, n. 92, p. 1-21, jan/dez. 2021. https://doi.org/10.5902/1984644443159. Disponível em: https://periodicos.ufsm.br/reveducacao/article/view/43159. Acesso em: 2022-07-20